Gerdes on the possible sea-change in the Ukraine War?
Posted by Guessedworker on Friday, 20 March 2026 21:45.
The loss of Starlink was bad for Russian operations. The loss of Telegram is worse. But the sheer pace of Ukrainian innovation is the killer. Prof Gerdes explains how, four years to the day when the Ukrainians first switched from defence to attack, the balance is shifting that way again. Ukrainian forces are gaining more land than the Russians are taking. The latter’s spring-summer offensive can’t get started. The Russian deep rear is being hit. At the line of contact losses are already running at or beyond what the Russian army can recruit. The Russian strategies of attrition and war from the skies against the civilian population is being blunted. Where does it all go from here?
0:00 ISW confirms Russia’s offensive is faltering
0:20 Ukrainian drone strikes hit key industry
0:54 Achilles 429th unit shows new capabilities
1:19 Ukraine’s expanding mid-range drone power
2:07 Targeting Russian air defense and logistics
2:45 Shift toward FPV and mid-strike drones
3:33 The economics of drone warfare
4:40 Mapping Ukraine’s strike patterns
5:17 Hits on Russian nitrogen facilities
5:40 Russia’s drone activity and defenses
6:13 Mounting Russian losses in detail
7:05 Real-time casualty and equipment trends
8:10 Measuring the offensive’s intensity
8:55 ISW: Ukraine disrupting offensive prep
9:30 Defense holds on the Lyman axis10:11 Phoenix Regiment and Achilles impact
11:00 Russian milbloggers admit heavy losses
11:39 SBU arrests suspected infiltrator
12:03 Electronic warfare training expands
12:53 Kyiv battle anniversary context
