Arise: two comments from theoildrum

Cherenkov

One must also remember that as number of ills facing society increase, e.g. climate change, ocean desertification, fresh water decline, etc. the size of the black swan needed to start a catabolic cascade of collapse (the dreaded CCC) shrinks.

In a robust society, that black swan must be huge, an enormous earthquake, a world war, or a pandemic. We are teetering on the edge, awaiting that black swan. We are like a world of builders who built into the sky a fantastic web of skywalks and airy buildings using the earth beneath that building to form the thing itself. Over the years the stability of the edifice went from strength to fragility. At first, the foundation was sound. It was still a largely un-mined earth. But, as we dug and dug and dug away at the raw materials, we ... created this fragile spongiform supporting structure beneath our city ... Now all it will take is a black cygnet bumping up against one of its thin supports to bring it down.

I don’t know when it will come down, or if it will be fast or slow, but I do know that it will not fall up.

waxwing

The black swan will come in one of two ways: as an accident or as a deliberate act. That it has not yet come implies that it is not yet desired. Yet it may be desired. And desired or not it will come.

 

Posted by Søren Renner on Sunday, August 9, 2009 at 11:37 AM in Peak Oil
Comments (6) | Tell a friend

Comments:

1

Posted by Fred Scrooby on August 09, 2009, 12:34 PM | #

”One must also remember that as the number of ills facing society increases, e.g. climate change, ocean desertification, fresh water decline, etc. the size of the black swan needed to start a catabolic cascade of collapse (the dreaded CCC) shrinks.  In a robust society, that black swan must be huge, an enormous earthquake, a world war, or a pandemic.  We are teetering on the edge, awaiting that black swan. […]  Now all it will take is a black cygnet bumping up against one of its thin supports to bring it down.”

______

The black swan will come in one of two ways:  as an accident or as a deliberate act.  That it has not yet come implies that it is not yet desired. Yet it may be desired. And desired or not it will come.

To paraphrase Viennese tenor Leo Slezak:  “When does the next black swan leave?”
______

Explanation:  After watching the film Heidi posted here the other day, I looked up actor Walter Slezak’s bio on Wikipedia, and saw the following anecdote about his father Leo:

[Famous opera tenor Leo Slezak] was a convivial person, and many anecdotes reveal his sense of humour. The best-known example is as follows:  during a performance of Wagner’s Lohengrin, a stage hand sent the swan out too early, before the tenor could hop aboard.  Seeing his feathered transportation disappear into the wings, Slezak ad-libbed to the audience:  “Wann fährt der nächste Schwan?” (“When does the next swan leave?”).

[ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leo_Slezak ]

[Walter Slezak’s] autobiography, What Time’s the Next Swan? was published in 1962.  The book’s title refers to an alleged incident in the career of his father, heldentenor Leo Slezak.  During a performance in the title role of Lohengrin, the elder Slezak was supposed to finish his aria by stepping into a swan boat and then being pulled offstage.  When a stagehand removed the boat prematurely, Slezak supposedly covered for the error by asking the audience, “What Time’s the Next Swan?”

[ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Slezak ]

2

Posted by James Bowery on August 09, 2009, 01:10 PM | #

Suffer the little white cygnets…

3

Posted by Non-white person comment on August 10, 2009, 05:55 PM | #

I was cruising the Net looking for pics of blondes and found your site. I agree that the majority of population prefer tall, blonde, and blue-eyes. This is coming from someone who is short, dark, and brown-eyed. But since I didn’t win at the genetics lottery and was not born with those desirable features I don’t support most of the arguments that seek to establish superiority based on genetics.
I think blondes indeed are among some of the prettiest but I also think that there are many non-white beauties as well. The point of my post is even us non-white folks agree that there is a preference for whiteness which is tall, blonde, and blue-eyed.

4

Posted by Rand on August 10, 2009, 07:16 PM | #

But since I didn’t win at the genetics lottery and was not born with those desirable features I don’t support most of the arguments that seek to establish superiority based on genetics.

Posted by Non-white person comment

We don’t want a system of White supremacy, we just want separation in order to protect our race and culture from denigration and destruction.

5

Posted by Whitey on August 12, 2009, 09:28 AM | #

We don’t want a system of White supremacy, we just want separation in order to protect our race and culture from denigration and destruction.

From the non-white perspective separation is the same thing as supremacy. Deep down they know that if they lose access to us they will be left behind.

6

Posted by Swooping Black Swan on August 12, 2009, 12:57 PM | #

“Revolution coming with next meltdown”

Americans are not going to put up with the “Wall Street Conspiracy” ripping off investors and taxpayers much longer. Wall Street got rich sticking us with mountains of debt for generations to come.

Expect a major house-cleaning, a second American Revolution. We predicted the “Great Depression 2? around 2012. Well, we doubt taxpayers will passively sit one more time, like in the 1930s, in 2000, and the past few years. Next time voters will take a page from the history books about past revolutions in the American Colonies, France and Russia. A perfect storm will erupt in a massive global credit meltdown, bringing down Wall Street and the clandestine $670 trillion shadow central banking system. And the collateral damage will be massive and widespread, in areas such as these:

* Lobbyists’ power is lethal to our values. Special interests are running and destroying American democracy, will self-destruct.

* Derivatives: Cap ‘n trade will crash worse than subprime. The Goldman Conspiracy’s spending millions lobbying for trillion-dollar derivatives.

* “Too-greedy-to-fail” big banks will trigger harsh backlash. Banks pay huge bonuses yet modify only 9% of 4 million stressed home loans.

* America’s wealth gap will trigger grass-roots rebellion. Wall Street’s greed is so pervasive, gluttonous and obvious the rest will rebel.

* The “Goldman Conspiracy” will be a target for retribution. Goldman’s hubris is most egregious and flagrant. Their arrogance will backfire.

* Wave of creative destruction will revive commercial banking. Investment bankers are killing commercial banking, Glass-Steagall will return.

* Secrecy protecting Wall Street’s unethical behavior to end. Wall Street’s control over Washington’s lawmaking will come to an end.

* The Fed’s shadow banking will collapse under excess debt. Central bank balance sheets overdrawn, feeding new bubble with cheap money.

* A “Black Swan” of huge unintended consequences. Next bubble, highly unpredictable, huge collateral damage on Wall Street.

- from http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-meltdown-will-come-in-2012-2009-08-11?pagenumber=2

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